Competitive Momentun

Competitive Momentum

Knowing how fast your organisation is gaining or losing ground on competitors gives you an edge. Competitive Momentum™ is an early warning system that helps alert managers to threats and opportunities.

An Early Warning System

Holly Stark, Chief Operating Officer

While most corporate leaders will tell you they would rather be able to see where they are going then where they have been, the market research available doesn’t usually allow them to do this. To assess future challenges and strategic options, top management needs more forward-looking data and analytics, especially in relation to rapidly changing stakeholder expectations and competitive pressures. What’s needed is an early warning system.

Enter Competitive Momentum.

An early partner of Lepere Analytics was John Zogby the respected US political pollster. John had learned that momentum was a better predictor of final election results in close races, than the absolute level of candidate preference at a specific time. Learning from political polling techniques, we created a simple, yet robust metric for Competitive Momentum using a three-level assessment of a brand relative to its competitive set: “Is the brand gaining ground, losing ground or staying the same?” When measured among a distinct segment of the public we have labelled Expert Consumers, we found that over several years of testing (2008-2011), the Competitive Momentum metric has a high correlation with sales revenue, market-share changes, stock movement and GDP trends.

In our partnership with FleishmanHillard, we also discovered that the gap between people’s expectations of the category and their actual experiences with companies and brands drives Competitive Momentum making it an indicator of reputation, as well as revenue.

Competitive Momentum icon

Competitive Momentum

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Competitive Momentum
Competitive momentum chart

Proprietary algorithm | US Patent Pending | ™ and © Lepere Analytics

Nike Logo

Nike
Case Study

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Nike Case Study

The time frame is 2008 to 2011. The leader in athletic footwear is Nike followed by Adidas and Reebok. The challenge for Nike as seen in the Competitive Momentum data was that while Nike was doing well, its momentum was slowing in 2010 and the momentum of some challengers was increasing throughout 2009 and 2010.

Nike had a momentum score of +41% in 2008, +40% in 2009 and +37% in 2010. Meanwhile New Balance, a challenger with running heritage and Steve Jobs standard fashion fare received a +45% in 2009 and Skechers, a skateboarding favorite had a +48% momentum score in 2010. Interestingly Nike sales declined -6% between 2009 and 2011 as was suggested by the slowing rate of momentum. However, driven by innovation, Skechers saw a +200% sales rise from a smaller base in the same time frame and New Balance received a +17% boost. These momentum findings suggested that Nike needed to turn up the innovation dial and focus more on these emerging brands, instead of their most direct competitors Adidas and Rebook. Nike did that in 2011 and 2012 and has subsequently regained momentum and sales growth.

Expert Stakeholders and Momentum





Competitive Momentum

Competitive momentum chart

Nike case study

The time frame is 2008 to 2011. The leader in athletic footwear is Nike followed by Adidas and Reebok. The challenge for Nike as seen in the Competitive momentum data was that while Nike was doing well, its momentum was slowing in 2010 and the momentum of some challengers was increasing throughout 2009 and 2010. Nike had a momentum score of +41% in 2008, +40% in 2009 and + 37% in 2010. Meanwhile New Balance, a challenger with running heritage and Steve Jobs standard fashion fare received a +45% in 2009 and Skechers, a skateboarding favorite had a +48% momentum score in 2010.

Interestingly Nike sales declined -6% between 2009 and 2011 as was suggested by the slowing rate of momentum. Skechers, however, saw a + 200% sales rise from a smaller base in that same time frame driven by innovation, and New Balance received a +17% boost. These momentum findings suggested that Nike needed to turn up the innovation dial and focus more on these emerging brands instead of their most direct competitors Adidas and Rebook. Nike did that in 2011 and 2012 and has regained momentum and subsequent sales growth.