An Early Warning System

While most corporate leaders will tell you they would rather be able to see where they are going then where they have been, the market research available doesn’t usually allow them to do this. To assess future challenges and strategic options, top management needs more forward-looking data and analytics, especially in relation to rapidly changing stakeholder expectations and competitive pressures. What’s needed is an early warning system.

Enter Competitive Momentum.

An early partner of Lepere Analytics was John Zogby the respected US political pollster. John had learned that momentum was a better predictor of final election results in close races, than the absolute level of candidate preference at a specific time. Learning from political polling techniques, we created a simple, yet robust metric for Competitive Momentum using a three-level assessment of a brand relative to its competitive set: “Is the brand gaining ground, losing ground or staying the same?” When measured among a distinct segment of the public we have labelled Expert Consumers, we found that over several years of testing (2008-2011), the Competitive Momentum metric has a high correlation with sales revenue, market-share changes, stock movement and GDP trends.

In our partnership with FleishmanHillard, we also discovered that the gap between people’s expectations of the category and their actual experiences with companies and brands drives Competitive Momentum making it an indicator of reputation, as well as revenue.

Holly Stark is Chief Operations Officer of Lepere Analytics